Foundation Elimination

If you are reader that been with me from the beginning - you know that I am all about a draft party. Like, all about the draft party. Like, the question must be asked - does anything else matter? Don't we just play fantasy football strictly for the draft? Did I mention that I love the draft?

In fact this year I dressed up...

Now, I get it - my facial hair is subpar. However, when I did get to my buddy's house - he then promptly changed into a costume and shaved and trust me - he pulled it off much better than I. This is much I love fantasy football and I love the draft.

The draft is not just something I love - it is something that is extremely important in regards to your entire fantasy football season. It sets the foundation for your team. Yes, many owners will trade away players - but the core is set in place. The draft will determine where your strong positions are and what positions you need to improve.

In a 14 team league you will get about 3 to 4 rounds before you end up swinging for the fences and having to take risks. Think about it - 4 rounds of 14 teams is 56 picks. If you were in a 10 team league you be nearly halfway through the 6th round. In a 14 team league you need to make the first four picks really count - they are your core foundation...

Hoosier Daddy - Gurley, M. Evans, L. Fitzgerald, J. Gordon

J-Bones - Bell, K. Allen, Mckinnon, Crabtree

I AM STUPID - D. Johnson, M. Thomas, S. Diggs, E. Sanders

Dez Nuts - A. Brown, Kelce, A. Collins, B. Cooks

Picking ARod - Elliott, A. Rodgers, A. Cooper, A. Jeffery

Steady Diet - Kamara, A.J. Green, T. Hill, L. Miller

Rodger's Neighborhood - S. Barkley, Mixon, Hilton, D. Lewis

White Condomints - K. Hunt, D. Hopkins, Smith-Schuster, G. Olsen

Fantasy Doctor - Fournette, J. Howard, D. Thomas, A. Robinson

Sagging TD's - D. Cook, Gronk, D. Henry, M. Jones Jr.

Robert 3-Woods - D. Freeman, D. Adams, Z. Ertz, J. Ajayi

Hernandez Hit Men - C. McCaffrey, M. Gordon, G. Tate, J. Landry

PimB - J. Jones, O. Beckham, D. Baldwin, R. Freeman

MM is Gay - K. Drake, T. Brady, L. McCoy, C. Hogan

Let's work backwards to find the best core group of players...

1. Avoid any instant issues. With your first four picks creating the core to your team - you have to avoid any injuries or suspensions. Why would you draft someone (unless they are an absolute stud) who is already hurt or facing a suspension? For example...

Picking ARod - Why would you risk a good pick on Alshon Jeffery?!? Not only does he have a history of injuries, but he is currently hurt. 

J-Bones - Jerrick McKinnon is more than likely going to be shut down for the rest of the preseason and is working on being ready for the regular season opener. He suffered a calf sprain and is hoping that it doesn't affect his "bounce." 

Prible is my B**ch - PimB selected Doug Baldwin and who knows what is going on with that knee. Baldwin is supposedly on track to be ready for the home opener - but the Seahawks might be the most tight lipped team in the NFL. 

Mike McCarthy is GAY - McCoy was acting a little "shady" this offseason (see what I did there). He supposedly put a hit out on his ex-girlfriend. Not too mention he also has a lingering groin injury that has seemed to be with McCoy for the past three seasons.

Sorry, but you can not have this kind of risk in the first four picks - this is where you hop off the train!

2. You should be able to look back as last season as a barometer for how justified your pick was. If you can't - you may have a problem...

Hoosier Daddy - Love the first three picks, but unfortunately Gordon just couldn't obey the rules. We are all hoping he can stay clean - except for God, cuz he hates Cleveland!

I AM STUPID - Yes, I know, David Johnson technically did play last season. Honestly, I would love to have him - but these are the rules that I have to play by. Since he did not log an entire game, I am going to have to eliminate you.

Rodger's Neighborhood - Everybody would have picked Saquon Barkley - or would they have? He is suppose to be good. The key word is italicized, the dude has not even played a down of NFL football in his life.

White Condomints - See "I AM STUPID" and replace David Johnson's name with Greg Olsen.

Fantasy Doctor - See "White Condomints" and replace Greg Olsen with Allen Robinson.

Prible is my B**ch - See "Rodger's Neighborhood" and replace Saquon Barkley with Royce Freeman.

Ironically, three of these players that eliminated their teams this year were on the same team last year. Yet, that same team also made the playoffs - cheers to you "Swindler!"

3. I think the most important thing for this year's FF season is to solidify your running backs. The drop-off is quick and steep at that position. If you can lock-up two decent running backs (tier 2 or higher) then you have a distinct advantage over other teams. Any team that did not take two running backs in the first four picks - hasta lasagna, don't get any on ya....

Dez Nuts - Alex Collins is the sole running back in the first four picks. Let me just repeat that, ALEX COLLINS - that is how quickly the drop-off is!

Sadly, Dez will be exiting all by himself and we are now left with 3 teams - Steady Diet, Hernandez Hitman, and Robert 3-Woods.

4. After you have fit the criteria of the first three - you want to make sure that you find a player that sees plenty of targets. If you took a WR in the first four round he must have averaged at least 7.5 targets or more a game...

Steady Diet - Tyreek Hill only saw 7 targets a game (average). T. Hill might be the definition of a "boom or bust" player. If you read the blog, you already know he has my favorite play of all of last year - but it is still not enough to push Steady Diet over the top...

5. If you have made it this far and filled all the criteria to this point - congrats! The last a final criteria is to have a running back that see over 5.0 targets a game (average).

Robert 3-Woods - Neither of the running backs on this team meet that criteria. In fact, both running backs are in a timeshare - neither of which are featured in the passing downs. So close, but no cigar...

Which then leads us to the top team with the best first 4 picks....

Hernandez Hitmen - Not only do both the running back on this squad pass the target mark, but also McCaffrey tied Leveon Bell for the most per game at 7.1. Hernandez Hitman you have officially put a target on your back by solidifying the best core at the start of the season!

My statement should come as no surprise to anyone....

***HERNANDEZ HITMEN WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS***

Whether it is injuries or no support from the rest of the positions or whether it is pure unluckiness with match-ups, you heard it here first. I am LaVar Ball and I speak things into existence.

Mwah

The Art of the Trade

Welcome, Welcome, Welcome...

It is almost time for the new season of Fantasy Football! My love for fantasy football has become overwhelming. Don't get me wrong the NFL in general is a fantastic thing - but I am not playing in the NFL. I am not the one running into the end zone or the one catching the pass across the middle or the one that just got destroyed trying to run a slant - thank goodness! However, I am the one that is managing my fantasy team. I am the one contact owner and asking about trades or sitting players on the bench because their matchup is not in the favor. I am the one calling the shots - and that is why, this year, I am not just ready for the NFL - I am ready for FANTASY FOOTBALL!!

This year our league did something a little different. This year we set the draft order ahead of time and then allowed for draft pick trading to take place. Let me be the first to say - it is a blessing and a curse - and I as the commissioner of the league take full responsibility. The blessing: it allows you, the team owner, to think about fantasy football for an extra two weeks. It allows you to be active on the trade block and feel good about a trade that you have made even though we are only in pre-season week 2. The curse: half of your league will be the tried and true traditionalist and will not trade their draft picks. That same half will also extremely dislike the trading that is taking place - and most of the curmudgeons will let you know of their dislike.

Oh well............

So let's get to some the action we have seen thus far.

First our draft order:

1. Hoosier Daddy
2. The J-Bones
3. Dirty Mike and the Boyz
4. White Condomints
5. BringBack Harbs
6. Waco Kids (defending champ - he should be kissing Gurley's feet right about now)
7. Mr. Rodger's Neighborhood
8. Team Dez Nuts
9. Mike McCarthy is Gay
10. Fantasy Doctor
11. Sagging TD's
12. LA Xtreme
13. Certified "G"
14. Prible is my B**ch

In our league we do a snake draft. If you don't know what that means (why are you even reading this?) the first round goes in this order, the second round goes in reverse order. So, essentially P is my B will have the last pick in the first round and the first pick in the second round. The rest of the draft just continues to go back and forth between this order and the reverse order.

Once our league found out the order - it became similar to Wall Street. Pick are stocks and owners are the brokers. I envision it to look something like Wolf of Wallstreet - minus the candle wax. I am fairly positive that by myself I have offered at least 50 or so trades - and it has been less that one week since the order has been established.

With so many trades floating around - let's breakdown some of the deals that have been finalized....

Trade 1:
White Condomints receives:
9th overall
48th overall
93rd overall

MM is Gay receives:
25th overall
32nd overall
53rd overall

The important part of this deal lies in the top picks. White Condomints has made a play to acquire two first round picks (his own and MMisG). In doing so, he had to give up his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th - but he also received a better 4th round for his efforts.

Factor #1: Know where the drop-off exists

The drop-off is a term that refers to when a specific position has a significant drop in production. Certain players are considered "top tier" studs - at the running back position their are 4 - Bell, Gurley, D. Johnson, Elliott. The argument can be made that other players are extremely close to their production: Kamara, Barkley (not Charles), Gordon, Hunt, maybe Fournette. These guys would be considered "tier 2" running backs. At this point, the running back position experiences a drop-off. There is still good production to be had - but the remainder of the players are all vulnerable to a specific match-up. The drop-off for running backs is after the 9th player.

Factor #2: Know your league

This is extremely crucial when deciding whether to trade up or down. In my league, wide receivers are valuable. They are also a position where a WR2 can still score a decent amount of points (PPR scoring). Many commissioners will be looking to take many wide receivers in their 1st, 2nd, and possibly 3rd round. White Condomints has made a play that gives up his 2nd and 3rd round picks for chance to land two extremely good running backs. This may be a high price to pay - but there is always some rolling of the dice in fantasy football. The idea is to try and roll dice that are loaded - and grabbing two really good running backs equal two loaded dice.

On the flip side, MM is G has now solidified his ability to fill many holes (especially the Front Hole) with this trade. He has successfully now grabbed two 2nd round, two 3 round, and a 4th round pick. Which means he will have draft 4 players while some teams only have two players (after he makes his second 3rd round pick) and he will have 5 players while some teams only have 3 players (in the middle of the 4th round). His risk is not being able to pick until the middle of the second round - his dice is not loaded - he is just rolling them multiple times!

Winner of the trade: Coin flip - would you rather have two studs or would you rather have depth

Trade 2:
WC receives:
8th overall
36th overall
92nd overall

Dez Nuts receives:
4th overall
48th overall
88th overall

This is an interesting trade. You would have thought that White Condomints (WC) would have been done after acquiring his 2nd first round pick - but obviously you have not seen the movie Draft Day. He then decides to take his original 4th overall pick and attempt to trade down in the first round to move up in a few others.

Factor #3: Know who you are trading with

There are a few commissioners in this league that seem to never trade. They either send out trades that are extremely slanted or they always decline (and never counter). Now, that is not to say that all trades that are sent out are not slanted - but there is an art to sending a slanted trade. When you send a  trade you want it to be in your favor (obviously) but not too over the top that it shuts down the opposing owner. It would be like offering a $100,000 to the owner of a $250,000 home - clearly you are going to halt the negotiations.

Dez and WC are two owners that actively pursue trades. There will be a "battle" back and forth about which picks to give and which picks are wanted. Eventually, the two found a common ground....

Factor #4: The Irving Effect

In every trade, there is the Irving Effect. If you follow the NBA you know exactly what I am talking about. The trade that sent Kyrie Irving to the Celtics also involved a slew of decent players. The difficult part for the Cavs (KI's original team) was that Irving had already said he wanted to be traded. As an owner of a fantasy football team - you should never make yourself appear as if you need to make the trade.

In this trade, WC has offered up Kyrie Irving (4th overall pick). The pick that will essentially turn into either Antonio Brown or one of the top 4 Running Backs. Dez clearly feels that his team could benefit from this pick - to be fair, any team could benefit from this pick. However, just like in the first trade - there is a price to pay. Dez must trade his 1st round pick (8th overall) and his 3rd round pick (36th overall) while getting the WC's 4th round pick (48th overall) in return.

Dez has now locked up a spot to secure one of the top players in the league - was the price worth it? In doing this trade, WC has now locked up two 1st round picks (8th and 9th) and also has regained back a 3rd round pick.

However, the question still remains - would you rather have Kyrie Irving or multiple good players?

Winner of the trade: Coinflip - slightly favoring White Condomints, due to prior trade and needs

And with that, I encourage all of you to check your fantasy teams - because I have just sent every single owner a trade offer and I will be hoping for, at the bare minimum, an acceptable counter offer.


MWAH