This is going to be a loaded post.... so if you would like to skip by all the talk about how good my team is and how much my team would dominate if Lamar Jackson was not broken. Thus, he is still broken and ARBL is looking like a genius grabbing Prescott in that trade. For those wondering... about the supposed fleecing...
Points since the trade:
Nips and Salsa Received...
Lamar Jackson: 54.14
Saquon Barkley: 74.1
ARBL Received...
Dak Prescott: 96.66
Courtland Sutton: 52.7
Now, don't get me wrong - it doesn't always work out directly like this and I understand that... it matters who the replacement it is, the team make-up, etc. However, Lamar is getting out scored by nearly both players that Nips sent out. Not even close to the most lopsided trade made in the league.... let's take a look as some:
ARBL Received...
Chase Brown: 90.4
Terry McLaurin: Injury Riddled... played 1 week
Chig Okonkwo: 27.9
Ertz/Eifert Received...
Rhamondre Stevenson: Injury... then lost starting job
Davis Njoku: 24.8
A trade involving players where have either been hit the injury bug or lost their starting job... the team that gets Chase Brown wins, and wins in a big way.
The same can be said for the trades involving...
1st Downs Received...
Treveyon Henderson: 99.4
Brian Thomas Jr: Might be the biggest bust in fantasy football right now
BEKH Received...
Jayden Daniels: Pussyitus
Isiah Pacheco: Hasnt' played since week 8
Henderson is virtuality a must start every week now and if Jayden Daniels came back this would have been a fair trade. Unfortunately, the Commanders are most likely going to hold him out for longer than BEKH has time for.
There were other trades... involving AR Finger/Indiana Jones - but truthfully, you get the point. At some point in the season you have to decide - do I go down with my ship or do I attempt to throw some water overboard and save what I can. Typically, when a team is in desperation mode they make some big swings and that is when the shark can circle up and wait. Trust me, I have been there... in my other league I traded Patrick Mahomes for Jordan Addison and Justin Fields. What an absolute dumbass! But hey, it doesn't matter we don't care about other leagues... you don't talk about the side chick to the main chick.
Here is a quick write-up for the results and then we will also jump into the breakdown for the predictions...
Matchup of the Week
ARBL (6-6) v Cleveland Streamers (4-8)
Prediction: Cleveland Streamers... WRONG!!
Mystery Guest: Cleveland Streamers... WRONG!!
Nips and Salsa (10-2) v Indiana Jones (4-8)
Prediction: Nips and Salsa... RIGHT!!
Mystery Guest: Nips and Salsa... RIGHT!!
Bootay Pirates (6-6) v Ertz/Eifert (8-4)
Prediction: Ertz/Eifert... WRONG!!
Mystery Guest: Bootay Pirates... RIGHT!!
The J-Bones (7-5) v Frosted Flaccos (10-2)
Prediction: Frosted Flaccos... RIGHT!!
Mystery Guest: The J-Bones... WRONG!!
2AP (4-8) v Slender TD's (4-8)
Prediction: Slender TDs... RIGHT!!
Mystery Guest: Slender TDs... RIGHT!!
1st Downs Syndrome (8-4) v BEKH (4-8)
Prediction: 1st Downs Syndrome... RIGHT!!
Mystery Guest: 1st Downs Syndrome... RIGHT!!
Project Tush Push (7-5) v AR's Finger (2-10)
Prediction: AR's Finger... WRONG!!
Mystery Guest: AR's Finger... WRONG!!
Season Prediction: 55-29
Mystery Guest: 44-40
On to week 13 predictions.....
We have some new information when it comes down to the playoff push...
6 teams have now locked-up a spot for the playoffs:
Nips and Salsa
Frosted Flaccos
Ertz/Eifert
The J-Bones
Project Tush Push
1st Downs Syndrome
AR's Finger has been officially eliminated, which means no dropping/trading/waiver wire claims... but they can try to win their match-ups and play spoiler! A role that should not be taken for granted...
That leaves up with 7 teams fighting for 2 spots...
Bootay Pirates and ARBL are both 6-6 and the playoff spots are essentially their's.... unless something crazy happens. Indiana Jones does play Bootay Pirates in the final two weeks... 2 wins and you just might have a chance. On the flip side, ARBL has a tough task ahead... one win and they are for sure in... but they face Frosted Flaccos and Ertz/Eifert in their final matchups. Honestly, the matchups for the final 2 weeks are super interesting, here is where everything falls for the final 6 teams...
Bootay Pirates: Indiana Jones/Indiana Jones
- Easiest Path: 1 win and you are in
- Hardest Path: Lose both of the final two weeks, Indiana Jones/2AP/BEKH/Cleveland Streamers/Slender TD's win both weeks and outscore Bootay Pirates.... Slender is the closest team to out pointing them, but it is going to take a miracle for this to happen
ARBL: Frosted Flaccos/Ertz Eifert
- Easiest Path: 1 win and you are in... might actually be the hardest path with matchups that are left
- Hardest Path: The same as Bootay Pirates... only instead of being the 3rd highest points, they are the 3rd lowest points - pretty much hoping for a win or another team to not win the last two weeks
Slender/Streamers/BEKH/Indiana Jones/2AP
- All 4 of these teams need to win the final two weeks and need help from Bootay Pirates and ARBL.
- Indiana Jones holds half of the miracle for all of these teams in their hands... facing Bootay Pirates in both final weeks
- ARBL will be underdogs in both matchups... which means if one of these teams can win both weeks - there might be a better chance than what ESPN is giving them
If I were a betting man: Give me Bootay Pirates and Slender TD's to make the cut... I am obviously getting some pretty good odds with the Slender pick, but they have the firepower and they have the point difference.
Either way, you gotta win this week and you gotta hope for losses...
Matchup of the Week
Indiana Jones (4-8) v Bootay Pirates (6-6)
This is a big matchup for half of the league... and most of them are pulling for Indiana Jones. I hate to say it, but it just looks like a good week for Bootay Pirates... CeeDee Lamb plays KC who typically forces teams to throw the ball from blitz packages - but Dak ranks in the top 3 QBR's against the blitz. J-Herbo gets a comfy matchup against Las Vegas... avoid Crosby and you are golden. On the flip side, if Wan'Dale doesn't have another big week... this could be the end - an unfortunate occurrence after scoring the 2nd highest point total last week and still losing.
Prediction: Bootay Pirates
Mystery Guest: Bootay Pirates... making a playoff run and teaching a tennis coach what the true fall sport is at the same time!
Nips and Salsa (10-2) v 2AP (4-8)
Not the team you want to face when you need to win out the rest of the season. Chase comes back from suspension and Waddle comes back from bye - things might be looking up! However, there is just too much firepower on the other side. Gibbs and JSN were the top point scorers across all positions last week and if Lamar Jackson can actually wake-up this team might go into the playoffs as being the odds favorite. Maybe we need to make a phone call to Sean Mcvay and have him start giving Kyren some more touches.
Prediction: Nips and Salsa
Mystery Guest: Nips and Salsa... fleeced (riiiiiight) everyone's team, will he choke in the playoffs?
AR's Finger (2-10) v BEKH (4-8)
This is a must win week for BEKH... typically this would be a great matchup for them, however - we all know how these things go. ARF has been eliminated from the playoffs, so now they are going to have their best week of the year. Truly, the lineups in this matchup are not that bad - the cookie has just not crumbled the correct way for these teams. Look for ARF to make someone else join them this week - unless Achane has 50 points.
Prediction: AR's Finger
Mystery Guest: BEKH... battle of 2 bad teams, who cares?
1st Downs Syndrome (8-4) v Ertz/Eifert (8-4)
In the grand scheme of things, if we were picking the best actual matchup... this is the Matchup of the Week. On top of that, 1st Downs Syndrome might just be the darkhorse of the playoffs. Drake Maye is playing great football, CMC is the scrimmage yards king of the NFL, Bucky Irving is returning (hopefully), Henderson has taken of the starting role at RB. On the flip side, you have the man trying to chase down Maye for MVP (Stafford), ARSB (top 3 WR), Pickens (top 3 WR), Dowdle (top 10 RB). These are 2 playoff teams for a reason... you hate to say, but this might come down to forecasting the DEF and Kicker... give me Mr. Mevis (who is that guy?!?!?) for the win!
Prediction: 1st Downs Syndrome
Mystery Guest: 1st Downs Syndrome... best players overall, close
Project Tush Push (7-5) v Slender TD's (4-8)
There legitimately might not be a scarier looking 4-8 lineup in the world than the Slender lineup. Mahomes, Henry and Hall, and Puka and Wilson (replacement for MHJ). How are those five players on the same team and still 4-8? Because the Chiefs have had a down year, Henry has not been the King, New Yorks offensive line couldn't play in high school, Puka was injured. But now? Now they are back. Luckily for Tush Push they already have their 7 wins... this is going to be a tough matchup for them.
Prediction: Slender TD's
Mystery Guest: Tush Push... by a bunch
ARBL (6-6) v Frosted Flaccos (10-2)
At some point, the top 2 teams fighting for the 1 seed are going to slip. Juuuuuussst probably not this week (at least for Frosted Flaccos). Every once in a while you get a TE that comes along and makes things almost unfair when it comes to fantasy lineups. Kelce was that for a couple years, Taysom Hill was that for one year (when he played QB, but you could slot him in TE), Marques Colston was that once upon a time. Trey McBride is now that - he would rank as the 6th best fantasy WR. Which really just gives Flaccos the freedom set their lineup however they please. Ohhhh yeah, and Bijan is a stud.
Prediction: Frosted Flaccos
Mystery Guest: Frosted Flaccos... glad he is at the middle school, we would hear all about it!
The J-Bones (7-5) v Cleveland Streamers (4-8)
There is a world where the final week means nothing, in terms of making or missing the playoffs. In order for that to happen, The J-Bones need a big win here. We do get to see if the long wait from the waiver wire pickup of Joe Burrow was worth it. If Burrow is the Burrow of ole, this team could make a deeper than expected run in the playoffs. Streamers is doing what they can to stay alive, but as long as McCarthy is QB - I just don't trust Jefferson. The hardest part about that situation, you just can't take him out of your starting lineup... not a guy like that.
Prediction: The J-Bones
Mystery Guest: The J-Bones... Shedeur is out there, maybe the Streamers pick him up?
As always, I wish everyone good luck - except for you 2AP - may your entire roster be stuck in a never ending loop of teaching a blind kid how to ride a bike!
With Love
Commish