Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, enjoys the end of summer break. However, once school starts up that only means one thing: Football Season. Sure, my bank account usually takes a hefty hit (between the fantasy football league dues, DraftKings Sportsbook, and my favorite Spa "Stress Relief" sessions) - but who doesn't love it? I love hanging with the boys, playing cards and watching football - yelling at the tv like what we say will change the outcome of the game. I love coming home and my wife asks how the game went... but she doesn't really care - she just wants to know if she is going to have to blow me later on to cheer me up.
Anyways.....
For those that are actively apart of the league and show up to the draft days - honestly, I would call out the others individually.... but there are too many. Out attendance has been disheartening - just over half. I have the right of mind to put a punishment in place for missing the draft party... I just might, I just might.
As I was... we had the draft yesterday and with the draft comes the coveted D.D.A. Many have said that the D.D.A. is losing it's luster.... but they are dead wrong. Sure, we don't remember all the symbols and you can pretty much pick the top teams based upon who is left.... but hey, we love it.
D.D.D Rankings
1. Aaron Rodgers Blow Llams
2. Under the Table Handoffs
3. Heat Abba Goad Hicks
4. Cocaine Cowboys
5. The J-Bones
6. Ankle Holster
7. Brotherly Love
8. Handy Rudgins
9. Mayeday
10. Cleveland Streamers
11. Pendulous TD's
12. Bootay Pirates
13. Ertz when Eifert
14. PEN15 Wrinkle
Let's dive a little deeper...
14. PEN15 Wrinkle
Sleeper: Christian Watson - obviously could have a good year, he needs to stay healthy - if that takes place, look for Watson to flirt with the top 15 ranking in wide receivers
Question Mark: Chris Olave - could have a good year, but with a new QB (should be an upgrade, but rumors are circulating that Spencer Rattler is competing (not a good sign)). Olave is a top-end talent, but has really yet to put together a season that showcases his true talents. We will see though... it is not like the NFC South is flowing with top-level defenses.
Reasoning for Ranking: This team is going to struggle right out of the gate... unless changes are immediately made. Drafting 3 kickers and 3 defenses is crazy talk... and their starting RBs are truly backup running backs. Literally the RBs are projected to score less than 8 points in week 1.... combined.
13. Ertz when Eifert
Sleeper: Mike Williams - this was a great pick... especially if he can stay healthy. Williams has always been the guy that plays really well and quietly find himself in the top 15 and then gets hurt. He steps into a role as the WR2 and most like Option 3 in the NYJ offense.
Question Mark: Joe Mixon - there are a lot of questions surrounding Mixon; health, opportunity, new scheme. Mixon is in a high powered offense that will score points... through the air. Not to mention, Mixon is projected to miss 1.30 games according to DraftSharks.com
Reasoning for Ranking: Jefferson is the top stallion of this stable, but with Darnold throwing the ball will he still produce? We already covered Mixon, which then leaves Montgomery (TD dependent) and a slew of backups at RB. Murray will need to have a season similar to 2022 if this team wants to compete... I just don't trust that cat.
12. Bootay Pirates
Sleeper: Adam Theilen - Theilen was the sleeper for two reasons... he always seems to find a way to average 10-15 points a game and there was no other good options on this team. Mooney was a possibility - but he is going to struggle fitting in the ATL offense and everyone else below them will not see any playing time in the starting lineup.
Question Mark: Davante Adams - Gardner Minshew is the Oakland starting QB. If that doesn't scare you... I am not sure what will. Plus, he is on the wrong side of 30 - he will need to stay healthy.
Reasoning for Ranking: I will just say that J. Taylor and Walker III saved him from not being 13, because this team is going to struggle outside of those two (Hurts will be good as well). There is nearly no depth for this team, they are one major injury away from being at the bottom with Mr. 3 Kickers.
11. Pendulous TD's
Sleeper: Jared Goff - as of right now, he is Burrow's backup on this team. However, some may argue that the Lions will score more points than the Bengals and there is also concerns about Burrow coming off his injury.
Question Mark: De'Von Achane - Achane a speedy RB that will split carries with Mostert and is coming off of an injury. He could totally light it up and finish inside the top 5 orrrrr he could absolutely crash and burn and struggle crack 10 points a game - not what you are looking for in your 2nd pick.
Reasoning for Ranking: CMC is a stud, but after that you have a starting QB that is coming off a wrist injury, a rookie WR and two WR2's on their respective team. CMC is going to need to be the stud that he was last year... which he could - but then the titties are going to struggle outside of him.
10. Cleveland Streamers
Sleeper: Josh Palmer - this is great pick... Palmer is the number 1 receiver for LAC and the top target getter returner to Herbert. The only real issue is the Streamers are loaded at WR and Palmer may never get a chance to be the stud that he could be for LAC.
Question Mark: Anthony Richardson - there is MVP hype building around AR, but that is only because he is drawing comparisons to Cam Newton - we saw what happened to Newton post injury... which is where Richardson is now. Good luck with this season's post injury Newton!
Reasoning for Ranking: Assuming Lamb signs and plays this team is solid at pass catching (McBride at the TE), it is the RBs that are going to struggle. Spears is technically a starter - but he is 50/50 for Tennessee at best and Singletary now runs behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Truthfully the best team might have is two RB's who are in a 50/50 split (Spears and Dowdle).
9. Mayeday
Sleeper: Jaylen Warren - there is some thought that he is actually the better back in Pitt. Warren is more explosive and definitely the better pass catcher (Najee Harris). Warren could see himself in a similar role to Gibbs in Detroit (with Harris being the Montgomery).
Question Mark: Puka Nucua - was last year a fluke? Did Puka just benefit from the Kupp injury and now it won't repeat? Does he deserve to be drafted as the WR8? Not just one question mark... three.
Reasoning for Ranking: To be fair, ESPN gave them the number 1 ranking - which I have theory behind that. Outside of kicker, Mayeday filled every spot fairly quickly - filling the starting lineup by round 9 (including the defense). This gives the top "scoring" defense - but does that really matter? Last year the top scoring defense averaged less than 3 points more than the 14th scoring defense and the top scoring defense also scored negative points 3 times (same as number 14). The D.D.A. sees through the ESPN ranking and fairly ranks them around the middle of the pack - near the top of the pack of those not present, if that matters (which it should).
8. Handy Rudgins
Sleeper: Keon Coleman - the targets left Buffalo this offseason, someone has to take over. Coleman is the new jacket in town (You know he got that from Macy's?) and he is ready to possibly be the new number 1. Coleman has a slew of highlight catches in college and definitely showcases the highpoint talent to be successful... will he get enough opportunity?
Question Mark: Alvin Kamara - the RBs on this team could end up the best in the league if Kamara can stay healthy and keep producing. He is age and health is a factor... and nobody should trust the eye-liner wearing Derek Carr.
Reasoning for Ranking: this is the top team of those GM's not present, so good for you! The RBs are good and Stroud is strong QB... the question comes down to whether or not the WR/TE will suffice. With no true number 1 receiver on the squad and two question marks at TE... the question becomes can Handy find some combination that will work?
7. Brotherly Love
Sleeper: Austin Ekeler: great value in the 9th round, Ekeler could come in and be a PPR monster in Washington - who have had their fair share of PPR RB's. Ekeler was a stud when healthy and even though he is in a new scheme, if he can earn some opportunities - he might be able to secure a big role in the offense.
Question Mark: Jordan Love - clearly the pick was a shot at the older brother... but it has to go there. Will Love be able to live up to the hype surrounding the offense this year? If not here, the question mark would go to Harrison Jr. He should be good, but Kyler Murray, man.... I just don't trust that cat.
Reasoning for Ranking: This would be a quick trigger on the bottom of those present for the D.D.A. There is not true stallion on the team... just a lot of good role players. It has worked out for teams in the past, but with no stud to hang your hat on - you hope consistency will reign supreme.
6. Ankle Holster
Sleeper: Xavier Worthy - the people are talking and Worthy is drawing comparisons to T. Hill. The speedster has found himself in the perfect situation with Mahomes at QB and Reid at HC. Reid will find a way to get his playmakers the ball and Mahomes will deliver it. This could be a deadly combo for Worthy to have a big rookie year.
Question Mark: Josh Jacobs - Jacobs has been the guy that quietly puts up points - similar to Frank Gore once did. Did you know that Jacobs is 2nd in yards/rushing tds/rushing first downs since 2019? With that being said, he is now in Green Bay - a entirely different offense. Oakland handed the ball to Jacobs 233 times last year and GB handed to ball off 320 times total - with only 142 of those handoffs leaving town... there is going to be regression for Mr. Jacobs
Reasoning for Ranking: It hard to hate on Breece Hall as the 5th pick and Allen finished as the number 1 QB last year. Ironically, Diggs is also on the Holster squad - but no longer stacked with Allen in Buffalo. A decent squad in first 5 picks, but after that the Homer picks took over and we saw 4 out of the next 8 picks all come from a GB team that might win 9 games this season.
5. The J-Bones
Sleeper: Dak Prescott - if Lamb is signed (he should be) and this offense doesn't change much, Dak will be throwing the ball nonstop. Last season was his most efficient season, finishing with a QBR of 105.9 - not too bad for a QB that drafted as QB11.
Question Mark: Derrick Henry - how long can King Henry wear the crown? He is now in Baltimore and I don't what it is about Baltimore RBs - they always get hurt. Henry is now on the wrong side of 30 and playing in a cursed backfield with Baltimores true RB1 getting the snap every time - not sure I trust Henry.
Reasoning for Ranking: In a league with 14 teams, running backs are key. Henry/Najee/Zeke just isn't getting it done. Luckily, AJB/Waddle/Kupp can more than make it for you and easily get you a top 5 ranking. The question becomes... can the pass-catchers really carry the load and get The J-Bones a championship?
4. Cocaine Cowboys
Sleeper: Jerome Ford - it was always a question of when would Ford and Chubb be taken, in this draft Chubb was taken prior to Ford, but Ford is the starter and we don't even know if Chubb will be able to rehab and play till late in the season. Ford could turn out to be a stud and never even give the job up... who knows?
Question Mark: Michael Pittman Jr - truthfully, this comes down to Richardson's liking. I personally think that if AR had a chance to run the ball for 10 yards or throw it to Pittman, he is running it. Coming from a Colts fan and seeing Pittman draw comparisons to Mike Evans in the early stages and never seeing it pan out... I can clearly see this as a question mark.
Reasoning for Ranking: Lamar Jackson is going to be a stud and Gibbs could easily become a top 5 RB. I think that Devonta Smith is going to have a big year in Kellen Moore's offense and that would give this team a top 5 QB/RB/WR. Why not a podium finish? A lot of questions surrounding RB2 and TE.
3. Heat Abba Goad Hicks
Sleeper: Khalil Shakir - Buffalo's official number 1 wide receiver... Shakir totaled over 600 yards last season as the number 3 (truly number 4) option. What will happen now that 2 out of the top 3 options have left town?
Question Mark: DJ Moore - DJ Moore finished as WR6 last season... but that was last season. This season he has a new QB and new weapons surrounding him - will he get the opportunities needed to put up the big points?
Reasoning for Ranking: In a league when RB's drop-off - Bijan and Etienne are the strongest duo and there is a slew of WR's to pick two diamonds out of. However, some in this league are not high on Trevor Lawrence, who finished QB12 and was drafted QB18 - but whatever, whatever. Does the TE position hurt? Sure, but if New Orleans sticks with 1 TE... I have him. If they decide to gadget it up with Taysom Hill at QB... I got him. A podium finish for the Heat Bags is a solid preseason ranking.
2. Under the Table Handoffs
Sleeper: Jayden Daniels - there is a lot of hype building around Jayden Daniels and what he can do. I truly don't trust him entirely as an NFL QB, but he could be a solid Fantasy QB - projected to rush for just under 600 yards and 5 rushing TDs... if his body can hold up.
Question Mark: James Cook - every year there is thought James Cook is going to score touchdowns. He is in an offense that moves the ball... he should get plenty opportunities. Nope... he has 4 combined td's in the past two seasons... Josh Allen had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. Buffalo's true number running back is Josh Allen, always has been always will be.
Reasoning for Ranking: If you like James Cook and you trust Jayden Daniels - this team is good, arguably great. If you do not like Cook and don't trust Daniels - this team is middle of the pack, at best. There is also some school of thought that Nico Collins and Keenan Allen will see major regression this season with surrounding weapons improving for both players. However, there is enough firepower that this team should be just fine throughout the entirety of the regular season.
1. ARBL
Sleeper: Rome Odunze - Rome wasn't built in a day and this guy may take some time - but a lot of people smarter than me don't think it will take much longer than a day. My question is this: What does he do when do doesn't get to beat up on the weaker Pac-12 defenses? He will be good, but will the Chicago Offense be able to give him enough opportunity and will he develop quick enough? Experts say.... yes.
Question Mark: Aaron Jones - it is always funny to me when a player leaves his team and joins a rival squad.... where is your loyalty? Jones will turn 30 in early December and now find himself on a Minnesota team that struggled to get Mattison going last season. Will Jones see the receptions needed to stay fantasy relevant?
Reasoning for Ranking: Hill and Kelce can win you weeks all by themselves - now they are on the same team? Tua lead the league is passing last season and he was grabbed in round 9.... Aubrey is the tier 1 kicker (sounds silly, but we are talking about splitting hairs on the podium - having a kicker indoors helps) and some might say, this team has one of the deeper benches. Are they weak spots? Of course, this is a 14 team league. But there is also a lot of solutions on this team for those question marks.
Now, let's get to my favorite portion of the blog....
Opening Betting Lines for the League
Brotherly Love v Ankle Holster: Ankle Holster is favor by .5 wins
While it is a travesty that these two don't face-off in the regular season (I do not touch the schedules). Projections are favoring Ankle Holster to finish on top of Brotherly Love.... wait, whaaaaaaa? Even though Ankle Holster drafted multiple Packers and they have a fairly tough schedule - there is a lot of reliance on young players or new players in new situations.
Heat Abba Goad Hicks makes the playoffs with a favored seeding
Obviously this is slightly a homered pick, buuuutttt with a 14 team league and having 2 RB's that are the sole breadwinners is huge. Not only that, but people are saying that JK Dobbins is looking like the more explosive back in LAC. Other GM's are not fans of the trio of Moore/Ridley/Mclaurin.... how many just don't like the confidence of the GM rather than don't like the trio? We are aware that this trio averaged 42.6 points per week last season. So the hate for the lineup falls on three guys that averaged close to 15 points per game? I will see whoever in the championship.
The J-Bones don't lose a top 3 pick to season ending injuries
I don't want to jinx it... but The J-Bones have not drafted a player (running back) in the top 3 draft picks and had them play all season long since 2020. In fact, the shortest amount a top RB has missed for The J-bones has been 4 games - which is crazy. Is this the year for full health? Derrick Henry surely hopes this trend to stop.
Bootay Pirates finish in the bottom 5 of points scored in the Regular Season
Of the 5 bets that are here at the start of the season... this is probably the worst bet. Bootay Pirates team should be decent, middle of the pack - personally, I think Hurts could have an MVP caliber season. Truthfully, if it wasn't for INTs he would have been in the conversation last year. The question is whether or not Taylor and Walker III will be true bellcow running backs. I would avoid this bet, but for the past 3 seasons this GM has found themselves in the bottom 5 of points scored (twice in deadlast)... didn't stop them from winning it in back-to-back years prior to the drought!
Under the Table Handoffs doesn't defend the title.... because they don't make the playoffs
This is a wild bet, considering over half the teams make the playoffs in this league. However, there is a lot of faith in a lot of young players (5 rookies on the team) and 2 players that their respective team brought in guys at the same position. The more you look at it, this is not only that wild... it is plausible.
No matter where you stand on the D.D.A. and no matter what team you back, we can all agree that it is nice to be back! It is time to get rowdy... be on the lookout for Week 1 predicktions!
With Love
Commish
P.S. Ankle Holster.... want to make the same running back bet? Top RB or combined top 2 RBs at the end of the regular season?
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