Week 4 Predictions

"Everyone has a plan.... until they get punched in the mouth." This famous quote is much deeper than the man who also once said, "I want your heart, I want to eat his children!" Obviously, the great philosopher (Mike Tyson) was a little off base when he mentioned eating someone's children. However, the first quote is directly relatable to life....

Everyone always has a plan for perfection - but what happens when something goes wrong? In his case, he gets punch in the mouth. In our case - we lose or we experience an injury. Do you try to weather the storm with your backups or hope that it was a fluke? Do you go out and try to make a big trade? These are the decisions that can make or break a fantasy season - many of us know these struggles very well. Many of us should take notes from our Team of the Week, who was able to rebound from a loss to now holding the belt....

Team of the Week

Aaron Rodgers Blows Llamas

QB - DeShaun Watson, Derek Carr

This is obviously one of the stronger positions for ARBL. Watson is one the top fantasy QBs this season - especially with the loss of his starting running back in the preseason. This put even more pressure on Watson and his electric wide receivers - which they have thus far answered the task. Watson finds himself as the current 6th best quarterback and he has played top defenses like Jacksonville and LA Chargers. Watson will continue to hold down the QB starting slot and Carr should only be needed for a bye week.

RB - James Conner, Mark Ingram III, Chris Thompson, Adrian Peterson

ARBL has been active in the trade market - but the top two running backs have stayed constant. Thompson was a nice pickup and had a decent week to add to the belt-worthy week. Conner has been consistent, but he has lacked any type of explosion that was experienced last season. Ingram had a monster week and seems to have found his calling in the explosive offense of Baltimore. It will be interesting to see how ARBL continues to rotate AP in and out of the starting lineup.

WR - Kenny Golladay, Phillip Dorsett, DeVante Parker, Golden Tate, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Quinn

It was an interesting move to trade away Mike Evans (who had just had a huge week). In a quick chat, ARBL's owner was hoping to acquire multiple starters in return for one stud. Tate has yet to play a game and there could be a definite starting role waiting for him once he returns. Golladay is hoping that Matthew Statford will be able to continue to force the ball downfield and the same can be said for Dorsett - who now has room to work with the release of Antonio Brown.

TE - Will Dissly, Trey Burton

This has to be tough for a Bears fan. Dissly is in the starting lineup and is a much more consistent play, but Burton is a homer pick. Dissly is currently a top-ten tight end and should remain there as the Seahawks offense actually looks decent. Dissly had a decent 2018 and looks to continue that throughout the 2019 season. Burton is looking to try and shake off an early season injury and try and find some kind of connection with Trubisky.

DEF/K - Bears/Will Lutz

The are very few defenses that are worth actually caring about. The Chicago Bears defense is the top defense in the fantasy world and it is a defense that you can throw in the starting lineup and not every worry about having the "stream" or search the waiver wire. The same can be said for Lutz - who was a top tier kicker, prior to Brees injury. Lutz should still perform fine, but the obvious star from these two positions is the Chicago defense. Khalil Mack - nuff said

Matchup of the Week

Aaron Rodgers Blows Llams* (2-1) v Pretty Boy is my B*tch (3-0)

I am not sure there is a better way to draw up a Matchup of the Week.... The Belt vs The Champ

QB: Watson v Jones 

Watson is a top tier quarterback and will have a clear advantage in this matchup. Jones had a great first week and has a very comfy matchup against Washington's defense - who was just torched by Trubisky, of all people. I still think the advantage goes to Watson as there are very few quarterbacks that legitimately have a number one wide receiver (Hopkins) and a speed demon on the opposite side of the field (Fuller).

RB: Conner/Ingram v White/Cohen

Yet again, this matchup is clearly in favor of ARBL. Conner has yet to live up to the hype of season two - but give this week he will find pay dirt multiple times, which could result in a big game. Ingram is on an explosive offensive team and White and Cohen are both "game flow running backs." PBIMB's running backs rely heavily on the passing game to take the lead and are both RB2 on their own team's depth chart.

WR: Golladay/Dorsett v Jones/Sutton

Uhhhhh.... Julio Jones - any questions where the advantage is? Yeah, I didn't think so.

TE: Dissly v Engram

Engram is currently the number one tight end in fantasy football - obviously that will stay for the entire season, but he is out to prove that he was not just a one-hit wonder. I am a big fan of Dissly, especially with Vannett being traded away - but you just can't argue with the target share that Engram is getting, clear advantage.

FLEX: Thompson v Hilton

Thompson is another "game flow running back" and actually would have struggled to post a decent week last week, if not for a couple garbage time catches. On the other hand, Hilton has the potential to explode at any given week. Hilton is a top ten receiver, yes I said it - because I was wrong about Brissett and his ability to push the ball to Hilton. Man, I can't believe I just typed - just doesn't feel write to say I was wrong about something. Let's just give the advantage to Hilton and move on.

DEF/K - Bears/Lutz v Vikings/McManus

Usually, this is where I go on my rant about how defenses and kickers don't really matter - but hold the phone, we are talking about Da Bears! Ironically, the two defenses will be going against each other - so it should be an interesting game. Kickers.... ahhhhhhh, screw 'em!

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers Blows Llamas wins..... but this one should be close

Mystery Guest: Pretty Boy is my B*tch wins

Florida State Seminal Vesicle* (2-1) v Wings of Dickarus (2-1)

Both of these teams are looking to rebound after each of them lost for the first time last week. FSSV is carried by Run CMC, Brady, and Watkins. McCaffrey should be fine against Houston's defense and he will definitely see plenty of touches. Brady should be fine, because.... well, he's Tom Brady. Watkins is the real question. Will he continue this hot streak? He is in a tremendous offense and his quarterback is second to none - but can you really rely on Sammy Watkins week-in and week-out? On the flip side, Wings starting lineup is loaded top talent names that are just primed to explode. David Johnson, Russell Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz - all are top tier players. Although, it is an odd decision to play a defense that is currently averaging negative points - will it come back to haunt him? Doubt it.

Prediction: Wings of Dickarus wins

Mystery Guest: Florida State Seminal Vesicle wins

PEN15 Wrinkle (2-1) v The J-Bones (1-2)

What do you do when you are a huge fan of an NFL team and draft multiple players on that team and then their bye week comes around? You get your ass beat by The J-Bones. The 49ers are on a bye week and PEN15 has a top tier TE, a shifty running back, and a quarterback who finds himself inside the top twenty (although Matt Ryan is the actual starter). I am not sure it really would have mattered in this matchup - nearly every possible slot could be in favor of The J-Bones. I have yet to actually see that (ever), but The J-Bones make a strong case for it this week. Rodgers could easily be projected to score more than Ryan - R-E-L-A-X, amirite? Thielen and Cooper go back and forth, but Cooper is projected higher with Gallup out with an injury. Fournette over Freeman is the only clearcut advantage for PEN15 - which just has to realize that this week was coming one way or another.

Prediction: The J-Bones win

Mystery Guest: The J-Bones win 

Ankle Holster (1-2) v Hoosier Daddy* (1-2)

Has there ever been a team that relies more on their running backs than Ankle Holster? Let's just call this matchup what it is... Cook/Ekeler/Mack vs Hoosier Daddy. Sadly, those three might be able to pull it off - but I wouldn't bet on it. Jackson is best quarterback not named Mahomes and the Adams/Beckham might be the best wide receiver group in the league. Waller has been a diamond in the rough - there was thought he was going to be a key cog in the offense once Brown was shipped out, but not quite to this extent. Hoosier Daddy just has too much firepower in too many different positions.

Prediction: Hoosier Daddy wins

Mystery Guest: Ankle Holster wins

....And Your Johnson (1-2) v Biggus Dickus (1-2)

Follow this analogy with me.....

Ankle Holster is to Running Backs as .....And Your Johnson is to Mahomes/Kelce stack. Are you tracking? There is not much else working Johnson. He fielded many offers in regards to Kelce, but he just couldn't part with the superstar - thus his depth has taken a toll. However, when you play a team that is still hungover after knocking off the top team in the league (DDA official) - who cares? Or is there still not enough firepower to choke down a Biggus Dickus? If McCoy/Kupp/Hooper can do what they did last week, then this matchup shouldn't be an issue.

Prediction: Biggus Dickus wins

Mystery Guest: Biggus Dickus wins

Massive TD's (1-2) v Hernandez Hit Men (1-2)

One of these teams was very active during trade week and the other tends to rely on his draft strategy and seldom makes a trade. Massive TD's made a couple trades that week (nothing to the level of The Swindler) and hopes that Jacobs and Andrews can step-up and perform as expected. In fact, outside of Cobb, every starting lineup position is within the top twenty.... not bad! On the flip side, Hit Men tends to stay the path - little change, every starting lineup position was drafted or picked up in free agency (only one position player). There are a few big names - Gurley and Thomas - but with the Brees injury and the limited workload, both of those players have failed to live up to the hype. Could be a long season for Hernandez Hit Men...

Prediction: Massive TD's wins

Mystery Guest: Hernandez Hit Men wins

Bluffton Backup Backups (1-2) v The Back Hatch (2-1)

This week has trouble written all over it for The Back Hatch. First, the newly acquired stud running back gets injured and is traded away within the same week - Tuesday to Tuesday. Then this week is the Jets bye-week, which means the Bell is out. Essentially, The Back Hatch went from having two top five draft picks in their starting line-up to zero within a matter of a few days. Oh and not to mention, now they take on a team that was just robbed of the belt last week by the Bears defense and that same team has scored the most points in the league to this point. Good luck little buddy, good luck...

Prediction: Bluffton Backup Backups wins

Mystery Guest: The Back Hatch wins

Starting this week I am going to make an additional prediction - who do I think will take home the belt. This week my money is on Wings of Dickarus - surprised? You shouldn't be. If I had to take a 2nd horse in the race it would be The J-Bones - which ironically is also who the Mystery Guest is betting on to win the belt. Good luck to all and may the odds forever be in your favor!

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