Week 5 Predictions

We are officially a quarter of the way through the season - you know what that means.... time for the first quarter awards. Let's take a look at how things are shaking out.....

MVP: Derrick Henry (The Fortune Cockies)

Henry is not the top point scorer in fantasy - but he is clearly the top running back. The top point scorer is Patrick Mahomes, closely followed by Kyler Murray. The separation between the quarterbacks is 1 point per week. The separation between Henry and the number 2 running back? 4.3 points. This is the biggest gap in player positions - making Henry the clearcut MVP and Top RB.

Top QB: Patrick Mahomes (Aaron Rodgers Blows Llamas)

One could easily argue that Murray could be slotted into this position - however, Mahomes still outscores Murray and the scary part? Mahomes has not had his best stuff this season. Mahomes has thrown 4 interceptions so far this season - which is almost as many as he had during the entire 2020 season. To think that Mahomes hasn't had his best stuff and he is still outscoring every other quarterback is a scary thought for everyone else in the league.

Top RB: Derrick Henry (The Fortune Cockies)

Refer to MVP write-up

Top WR: Cooper Kupp (Fresh Start)

What is like to have Matthew Stafford throw you the ball instead of Ryan Gosling? Kupp has seen an increase in touches per game by almost 2 and is seeing 4 more targets per game. That doesn't sound like a lot - however, if you take the average of yards per target (9.4) and multiply that by the number of touches, you are averaging 3.6 points on yards and 2 points per receptions. This equates to a 5 point increase per week - which is A LOT in fantasy football.

Top TE: Travis Kelce (Church Vans)

Are we surprised? Kelce has been the top dawg at the position for the past few seasons. However, the position is getting tighter and tighter as many other players are becoming more pass catching than blocking. Kelce still has outscored every other tight end, but Gronk beats him in the average per game. However, stability needs to be taken into consideration and Kelce is much more reliable. Gotta go with the consistent and trustworthy TE.

Top DEF: Buffalo Bills (PEN15 Wrinkle)

One the biggest blessings to the Bills may have been the week 1 loss. It lit a fire under a team that was expected to compete in the AFC. Since week 1, Buffalo has outscored their opponents 118-21. This includes a run of 10 sacks, 7 interceptions, and 4 fumble recoveries. On top of that, Buffalo still gets to play Miami, Jacksonville, New York Jets, and New England (twice).

Steal of the Draft: Deebo Samuel (Hernandez Hit Men)

Think about this... Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Robert Woods, Courtland Sutton, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, Brandin Cooks, and many more - were all drafted ahead of Deebo Samuel. Samuel was drafted as WR46 and now sits as WR3.... most definitely a steal!! On top of that Samuel has yet to record a week with less than 10 points and has multiple weeks above 30 points.

Waiver Wire Pick-up: Cordarelle Patterson (Hernandez Hit Men)

There are many possible candidates for this award: Sam Darnold (TFC) or Taylore Heinicke (TFC) - however, the positional advantage is too great to not give the award to Cordarelle Patterson is big to ignore. In a 14-team league, if you can draft a RB that is averaging 21 points, you have a good shot at winning - let alone pick one up off the waiver wire.

Trade of the Season: NOBODY HAS MADE A TRADE YET!!!

Matchup of the Week

The Fortune Cockies (3-1) v Aaron Rodgers Blows Llamas** (3-1)

We have a banger on our hands in the Matchup of the Week!!! This is the top 2 teams in the Gonorrhea division and also 2 of the top 3 scoring teams in the entire league. However, to be fair to ARBL - they are not going to be throwing out their optimal lineup. Montgomery is banged up and will be out for multiple weeks and Higbee is questionable throughout the week. On top of that, Mahomes and Hill matchup against the Buffalo Bills (not the comfiest of matchups). Too many issues this week for ARBL - smart money is on The Fortune Cockies.

Prediction: The Fortune Cockies

Mystery Guest: The Fortune Cockies

PEN15 Wrinkle (3-1) v DK Country* (2-2)

We have a tight, tight matchup - arguably the best 2-2 team (DK Country) against a tough PEN15 Wrinkle. Once again, if this comes down to matchups - DK Country has a some tough sledding. Murray faces off against San Fran - but let's be honest, nothing looks like it could slow him down. However, Harris faces off against a tough Denver defense and as Big Ben gets more of his weapons back - there may be more spreading around the ball and less focus on Harris. On the flip side, there are some comfy matchups for PEN15: Barkley vs. Dallas and Jones/Evans v Miami. Look for these matchups to help carry PEN15 to the victory.

Prediction: PEN15 Wrinkle

Mystery Guest: DK Country

Ankle Holster (0-4) v Hoosier Daddy? (2-2)

How does Hoosier Daddy get rewarded for facing the belt last week? They are given the sacrificial lamb - Ankle Holster. As long as Hoosier Daddy holds serve - this should be a cakewalk. Who knows though, maybe Ankle Holster will finally pick the right running back between Drake and Jacobs. I doubt it will really matter. At this point you are just hoping that one of the other two "0fers" don't grab a win this week and you have some time to figure a way out of this shit hole squad you have.

Prediction: Hoosier Daddy?

Mystery Guest: Ankle Holster

Country Roads (3-1) v The J-Bones (1-3)

This matchup would have been much cooler if Run CMC was healthy - unfortunately, he is still banged up and who knows when he will come back and to what amount the production will be. With that being said, there are not many positional face-off between the two teams that The J-Bones should feel confident about. Jefferson and McLaurin could have humongous weeks with their comfy matchups and they alone could put this one to bed.

Prediction: Country Roads

Mystery Guest: Country Roads

Hernandez Hit Men (3-1) v Bluffton Backup Backups (3-1)

This is the 2nd candidate for the MotW. HHM is the 2nd highest scoring team in the league and BBB was the last team to remain undefeated. However, BBB is coming off of a week where they failed to break 100 points and HHM scored 119 points - this has the potential to be another big blow to the BBB campaign. Ironically, this features Herbert going against Allen - both hoping to build on the Chargers big MNF win over the Raiders (and Derek Carr's emo looking ass). It will be interesting to see which of the two come out on top - I am sure they are both super concerned with the Bluffton Bombshell's fantasy league. Just for argument purposes... let's say they are concerned - the huge advantage is with Herbert since he controls where the ball go. I like that.......

Prediction: Hernandez Hit Men

Mystery Guest: Hernandez Hit Men

Church Vans (2-2) v Dixie Normous (0-4)

Is this the week for Dixie? Are they able to get their first win against a sliding Church Vans? I think so, I think it might be. Wait who does Bluffton play this week? Nah, never mind - let's keep this trend going. Church Vans is going to lock up a much needed win in order to get off this downward turn and send Dixie into obliteration. This is a much needed week for Dixie - but it does not look good. The Law of Averages has Hopkins having a big week and Brady gets a soft Miami defense that just gave up 18 to a banged up Wentz - what do you think the GOAT is going to do? 

Prediction: Church Vans

Mystery Guest: Church Vans

Teardrop TD's (0-4) v Fresh Start* (3-1)

There is rumblings in the camps of both these teams. One team is sitting at 3-1, but is coming off a dangerous under 80 points scored win. The other teams has the star power, but no depth to help out. There have been movement on the Teardrop roster and long tooth Crowder is cracking the starting lineup along with fellow Jets teammate Michael Carter. Can a team win if they are starting two Jets players? When is the last time a fantasy roster has ever started two Jets players? Like really? I can not even think of time when there have been enough talent for that to take place. However, I like the shakeup - I like the move - I like the switching up the mojo....

Prediction: Teardrop TD's

Mystery Guest: Fresh Start

As always, I wish everyone good luck - except for you Aaron Rodgers Blows Llamas, may his entire roster burn in a fiery helicopter crash eerily similar to the one that took down Kobe!